Design- and Theory-Based Approaches to Strategic Decisions

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Gambardella, Alfonso; Messinese, Danilo
• 署名单位: Bocconi University; IE University
• 刊物名称: ORGANIZATION SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1047-7039
• DOI: 10.1287/orsc.2023.18245
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: 1271-1287
• 关键词: strategic decision making; entrepreneurship; uncertainty; field experiments

摘要

We develop a unified framework to examine the implications of two primary approaches to strategic decision making under uncertainty: designing and shaping future scenarios vis-a`-vis testing theories about future scenarios. We conducted a three-arm randomized controlled trial involving 308 early stage entrepreneurs, dividing them into three groups-design-based training, theory-based training, and a control group-and tracked them over approximately 1.5 years. Our findings reveal that both approaches reduce the need for information in decision making and lead to higher commitment rates. The designbased approach encourages action despite negative beliefs, resulting in less frequent and later project termination. In contrast, the theory-based approach promotes a more conservative termination rule, leading to earlier and more frequent project abandonment. Although the theory-based approach is associated with higher average performance upon survival, the design-based approach fosters breakthroughs for decision makers. In sum, the design-based approach is well-suited for innovative ventures that gather information to shape their environment, whereas the theory-based approach is optimal for pursuing high performance under lower degrees of uncertainty.