Causal attribution and hindsight bias for economic developments
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
Hölzl, E; Kirchler, E
署名单位：
University of Vienna
刊物名称：
JOURNAL OF APPLIED PSYCHOLOGY
ISSN/ISSBN：
0021-9010
DOI：
10.1037/0021-9010.90.1.167
发表日期：
2005
页码：
167-174
关键词：
摘要：
Hindsight bias for economic developments was studied, with particular focus on the moderating effects of attitudes and causal attributions. Participants (N = 263) rated the likelihood of several economic developments 6 months before and 6 months after the euro introduction in 2002. Hindsight bias occurred selectively for attitude-consistent economic developments: Euro supporters showed stronger hindsight bias for positive developments than for negative ones; euro opponents showed the opposite pattern. Causal attribution further moderated the hindsight bias: Participants who perceived a strong connection between the euro introduction and specific economic developments showed higher attitude-consistent hindsight bias than participants who perceived those developments as unrelated to the euro. It is argued that hindsight bias serves to stabilize subjective representations of the economy.
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