Analyzing the analysts: Career concerns and biased earnings forecasts

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Hong, H; Kubik, JD
• 署名单位: Stanford University; Syracuse University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF FINANCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1082
• DOI: 10.1111/1540-6261.00526
• 发表日期: 2003
• 页码: 313-351
• 关键词: MUTUAL FUND MANAGERS; SECURITY ANALYSTS; UNDERWRITER REPUTATION; performance; recommendations; INVESTMENT; BEHAVIOR; INFORMATION; accuracy

摘要

We examine security analysts' career concerns by relating their earnings forecasts to job separations. Relatively accurate forecasters are more likely to experience favorable career outcomes like moving up to a high-status brokerage house.. Controlling for accuracy, analysts who are optimistic relative to the consensus are more likely to experience favorable job separations. For analysts who cover stocks underwritten by their houses, job separations depend less on accuracy and more on optimism. Job separations were less sensitive to accuracy and more sensitive to optimism during the recent stock market mania. Brokerage houses apparently reward optimistic analysts who promote stocks.