An empirical analysis of analysts' target prices: Short-term informativeness and long-term dynamics

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Brav, A; Lehavy, R
• 署名单位: Duke University; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF FINANCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1082
• DOI: 10.1111/1540-6261.00593
• 发表日期: 2003
• 页码: 1933-1967
• 关键词: EARNINGS FORECASTS; stock returns; recommendations; RISK

摘要

Using a large database of analysts' target prices issued over the period 19971999, we examine short-term market reactions to target price revisions and long-term comovement of target and stock prices. We find a significant market reaction to the information contained in analysts' target prices, both unconditionally and conditional on contemporaneously issued stock recommendation and earnings forecast revisions. Using a cointegration approach, we analyze the long-term behavior of market and target prices. We find that, on average, the one-year-ahead target price is 28 percent higher than the current market price.