Why is long-horizon equity less risky? A duration-based explanation of the value premium

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Lettau, Martin; Wachter, Jessica A.
• 署名单位: New York University; University of Pennsylvania
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF FINANCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1082
• DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2007.01201.x
• 发表日期: 2007
• 页码: 55-92
• 关键词: TERM STRUCTURE DYNAMICS; cross-section; COMMON-STOCKS; asset prices; MARKET; consumption; equilibrium; INVESTMENT; valuation; variance

摘要

We propose a dynamic risk-based model that captures the value premium. Firms are modeled as long-lived assets distinguished by the timing of cash flows. The stochastic discount factor is specified so that shocks to aggregate dividends are priced, but shocks to the discount rate are not. The model implies that growth firms covary more with the discount rate than do value firms, which covary more with cash flows. When calibrated to explain aggregate stock market behavior, the model accounts for the observed value premium, the high Sharpe ratios on value firms, and the poor performance of the CAPM.