Real and Financial Industry Booms and Busts

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Hoberg, Gerard; Phillips, Gordon
• 署名单位: University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF FINANCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1082
• DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2009.01523.x
• 发表日期: 2010
• 页码: 45-86
• 关键词: product-market competition; valuation; stocks

摘要

We examine how product market competition affects firm cash flows and stock returns in industry booms and busts. Our results show how real and financial factors interact in industry business cycles. In competitive industries, we find that high industry-level stock market valuation, investment, and financing are followed by sharply lower operating cash flows and abnormal stock returns. Analyst estimates are positively biased and returns comove more. In concentrated industries these relations are weak and generally insignificant. Our results are consistent with participants in competitive industries not fully internalizing the negative externality of industry competition on cash flows and stock returns.