Financial Regulation, Financial Globalization, and the Synchronization of Economic Activity

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem; Papaioannou, Elias; Peydro, Jose-Luis
• 署名单位: University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of London; London Business School; Pompeu Fabra University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF FINANCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1082
• DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12025
• 发表日期: 2013
• 页码: 1179-1228
• 关键词: BUSINESS-CYCLE SYNCHRONIZATION; international transmission; industrial specialization; risk-taking; LIBERALIZATION; determinants; constraints; contagion; CRISIS; TRADE

摘要

We analyze the impact of financial globalization on business cycle synchronization using a proprietary database on banks' international exposure for industrialized countries during 1978 to 2006. Theory makes ambiguous predictions and identification has been elusive due to lack of bilateral time-varying financial linkages data. In contrast to conventional wisdom and previous empirical studies, we identify a strong negative effect of banking integration on output synchronization, conditional on global shocks and country-pair heterogeneity. Similarly, we show divergent economic activity due to higher integration using an exogenous de-jure measure of integration based on financial regulations that harmonized EU markets.