Biased Beliefs, Asset Prices, and Investment: A Structural Approach

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Alti, Aydogan; Tetlock, Paul C.
• 署名单位: University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Columbia University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF FINANCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1082
• DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12089
• 发表日期: 2014
• 页码: 325-361
• 关键词: expected stock returns; cross-section; financing constraints; corporate-investment; COVARIANCE-MATRIX; MARKET-EFFICIENCY; loss aversion; overconfidence; bubbles; Extrapolation

摘要

We structurally estimate a model in which agents' information processing biases can cause predictability in firms' asset returns and investment inefficiencies. We generalize the neoclassical investment model by allowing for two biasesoverconfidence and overextrapolation of trendsthat distort agents' expectations of firm productivity. Our model's predictions closely match empirical data on asset pricing and firm behavior. The estimated bias parameters are well identified and exhibit plausible magnitudes. Alternative models without either bias or with efficient investment fail to match observed return predictability and firm behavior. These results suggest that biases affect firm behavior, which in turn affects return anomalies.