What Makes a Good Trader? On the Role of Intuition and Reflection on Trader Performance

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Corgnet, Brice; Desantis, Mark; Porter, David
• 署名单位: Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Ecole Normale Superieure de Lyon (ENS de LYON); Universite Claude Bernard Lyon 1; Universite Jean Monnet; Universite Lyon 2; emlyon business school; Chapman University System; Chapman University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF FINANCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1082
• DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12619
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 1113-1137
• 关键词: cognitive reflection; EMOTIONAL INTELLIGENCE; Trading performance; overconfidence; expectations; aggregation; INFORMATION; heuristics; judgments; inference

摘要

Using laboratory experiments, we provide evidence on three factors influencing trader performance: fluid intelligence, cognitive reflection, and theory of mind (ToM). Fluid intelligence provides traders with computational skills necessary to draw a statistical inference. Cognitive reflection helps traders avoid behavioral biases and thereby extract signals from market orders and update their prior beliefs accordingly. ToM describes the degree to which traders correctly assess the informational content of orders. We show that cognitive reflection and ToM are complementary because traders benefit from understanding signals' quality only if they are capable of processing these signals.