Higher Order Effects in Asset Pricing Models with Long-Run Risks

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Pohl, Walter; Schmedders, Karl; Wilms, Ole
• 署名单位: Norwegian School of Economics (NHH); University of Zurich; Tilburg University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF FINANCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1082
• DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12615
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 1061-1111
• 关键词: General equilibrium; consumption; volatility; predictability; macroeconomy; expectations; accuracy; returns; ratio

摘要

This paper shows that the latest generation of asset pricing models with long-run risk exhibit economically significant nonlinearities, and thus the ubiquitous Campbell-Shiller log-linearization can generate large numerical errors. These errors translate in turn to considerable errors in the model predictions, for example, for the magnitude of the equity premium or return predictability. We demonstrate that these nonlinearities arise from the presence of multiple highly persistent processes, which cause the exogenous states to attain values far away from their long-run means with nonnegligible probability. These extreme values have a significant impact on asset price dynamics.