Thinking about Prices versus Thinking about Returns in Financial Markets

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Glaser, Markus; Iliewa, Zwetelina; Weber, Martin
• 署名单位: University of Munich; Max Planck Society; University of Mannheim; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF FINANCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1082
• DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12835
• 发表日期: 2019
• 页码: 2997-3039
• 关键词: cognitive reflection; decision-making; RISK; expectations; frames; biases; scale

摘要

Prices and returns are alternative ways to present information and to elicit expectations in financial markets. But do investors think of prices and returns in the same way? We present three studies in which subjects differ in the level of expertise, amount of information, and type of incentive scheme. The results are consistent across all studies: asking subjects to forecast returns as opposed to prices results in higher expectations, whereas showing them return charts rather than price charts results in lower expectations. Experience is not a useful remedy but cognitive reflection mitigates the impact of format changes.