Labor-Technology Substitution: Implications for Asset Pricing

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Zhang, Miao Ben
• 署名单位: University of Southern California
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF FINANCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1082
• DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12766
• 发表日期: 2019
• 页码: 1793-1839
• 关键词: cross-section; INVESTMENT; GROWTH; PRODUCTIVITY; polarization; shocks; RISK; jobs

摘要

This paper studies the asset pricing implications of a firm's opportunities to replace routine-task labor with automation. I develop a model in which firms optimally undertake such replacement when their productivity is low. Hence, firms with routine-task labor maintain a replacement option that hedges their value against unfavorable macroeconomic shocks and lowers their expected returns. Using establishment-level occupational data, I construct a measure of firms' share of routine-task labor. Compared to their industry peers, firms with a higher share of routine-task labor (i) invest more in machines and reduce more routine-task labor during economic downturns, and (ii) have lower expected stockreturns.