Personal Experiences and Expectations about Aggregate Outcomes

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Kuchler, Theresa; Zafar, Basit
• 署名单位: New York University; Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF FINANCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1082
• DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12819
• 发表日期: 2019
• 页码: 2491-2542
• 关键词: job loss; investors; REALIZATIONS; leverage; MARKET

摘要

Using novel survey data, we document that individuals extrapolate from recent personal experiences when forming expectations about aggregate economic outcomes. Recent locally experienced house price movements affect expectations about future U.S. house price changes and higher experienced house price volatility causes respondents to report a wider distribution over expected U.S. house price movements. When we exploit within-individual variation in employment status, we find that individuals who personally experience unemployment become more pessimistic about future nationwide unemployment. The extent of extrapolation is unrelated to how informative personal experiences are, is inconsistent with risk adjustment, and is more pronounced for less sophisticated individuals.