Stimulating Housing Markets

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Berger, David; Turner, Nicholas; Zwick, Eric
• 署名单位: Duke University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF FINANCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1082
• DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12847
• 发表日期: 2020
• 页码: 277-321
• 关键词: COLLEGE ENROLLMENT EVIDENCE; fire sales; POLICY; debt; intervention; prices; cash

摘要

We study temporary fiscal stimulus designed to support distressed housing markets by inducing demand from buyers in the private market. Using difference-in-differences and regression kink research designs, we find that the First-Time Homebuyer Credit increased home sales by 490,000 (9.8%), median home prices by $2,400 (1.1%) per standard deviation increase in program exposure, and the transition rate into homeownership by 53%. The policy response did not reverse immediately. Instead, demand comes from several years in the future: induced buyers were three years younger in 2009 than typical first-time buyers. The program's market-stabilizing benefits likely exceeded its direct stimulus effects.