How Does Credit Supply Expansion Affect the Real Economy? The Productive Capacity and Household Demand Channels

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Mian, Atif; Sufi, Amir; Verner, Emil
• 署名单位: Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF FINANCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1082
• DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12869
• 发表日期: 2020
• 页码: 949-994
• 关键词: business cycles; housing finance; deregulation; banking; debt

摘要

Credit supply expansion can affect an economy by increasing productive capacity or by boosting household demand. In this study, we develop a test to determine if the household demand channel is present, and we implement the test using both a natural experiment in the United States in the 1980s and an international panel of 56 countries over the last several decades. Consistent with the importance of the household demand channel, we find that credit supply expansion boosts nontradable sector employment and the price of nontradable goods, with limited effects on tradable sector employment. Such credit expansions amplify the business cycle and lead to more severe recessions.