Are Analyst Short-Term Trade Ideas Valuable?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Birru, Justin; Gokkaya, Sinan; Liu, Xi; Stulz, Rene M.
• 署名单位: University System of Ohio; Ohio State University; University System of Ohio; Ohio University; University System of Ohio; Miami University; National Bureau of Economic Research; European Corporate Governance Institute
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF FINANCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1082
• DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13130
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 1829-1875
• 关键词: STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS; EARNINGS FORECASTS; Informativeness; performance; persistence; access; RISK

摘要

Short-term trade ideas are a component of analyst research highly valued by institutional investors. Using a novel and comprehensive database, we find that trade ideas have a stock price impact at least as large as recommendation and target price changes. Trade ideas based on expectations of future events are more informative than those identifying incomplete incorporation of past information in stock prices. Analysts with better access to a firm's management produce better trade ideas. Institutional investors trade in the direction of trade ideas. Investors following trade ideas can earn significant abnormal returns, consistent with analysts possessing valuable short-term stock-picking skills.