Belief Disagreement and Portfolio Choice

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Meeuwis, Maarten; Parker, Jonathan A.; Schoar, Antoinette; Simester, Duncan
• 署名单位: Washington University (WUSTL); Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF FINANCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1082
• DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13179
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 3191-3247
• 关键词: SPECULATIVE INVESTOR BEHAVIOR; partisan bias; stock-market; ECONOMIC-BEHAVIOR; expectations; RISK; consumption; Sentiment; opinion; TRADE

摘要

Using proprietary financial data on millions of households, we show that likely-Republicans increased the equity share and market beta of their portfolios following the 2016 presidential election, while likely-Democrats rebalanced into safe assets. We provide evidence that this behavior was driven by investors interpreting public information based on different models of the world. We use detailed controls to rule out the main nonbelief-based channels such as income hedging needs, preferences, and local economic exposures. These findings are driven by a small share of investors making big changes, and are stronger among investors who trade more ex ante.