Monetary Stimulus amidst the Infrastructure Investment Spree: Evidence from China's Loan-Level Data

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Chen, Kaiji; Gao, Haoyu; Higgins, Patrick; Waggoner, Daniel F.; Zha, Tao
• 署名单位: Emory University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Renmin University of China; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF FINANCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1082
• DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13204
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 1147-1204
• 关键词: policy; misallocation; destruction; RECOVERY; IMPACT; SHADOW

摘要

We study how a fiscal expansion via infrastructure investment influences the dynamic impacts of monetary stimulus on credit allocation. We develop a two-stage approach and apply it to the Chinese economy with a confidential loan-level data set that covers all sectors. We find that infrastructure investment significantly weakened monetary policy's transmission to credit allocated to private firms, while reinforcing the monetary effects on loans to state-owned firms. This fiscal-monetary interaction channel is key to understanding the preferential credit access enjoyed by state-owned firms during the stimulus period. Consequently, monetary stimulus crowded out private investment and decreased capital allocation efficiency.