The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Hassan, Tarek A.; Hollander, Stephan; Van Lent, Laurence; Tahoun, Ahmed
• 署名单位: Boston University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Tilburg University; Frankfurt School Finance & Management; University of London; London Business School; Boston University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF FINANCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1082
• DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13293
• 发表日期: 2024
• 页码: 413-458
• 关键词: Policy uncertainty; Textual analysis; TRADE; INVESTMENT; shocks; volatility; transmission; MARKETS; COSTS

摘要

We propose a text-based method for measuring the cross-border propagation of large shocks at the firm level. We apply this method to estimate the expected costs, benefits, and risks of Brexit and find widespread reverberations in listed firms in 81 countries. International (i.e., non-U.K.) firms most exposed to Brexit uncertainty (the second moment) lost significant market value and reduced hiring and investment. International firms also overwhelmingly expected negative first-moment impacts from the U.K.'s decision to leave the European Union (EU), particularly related to regulation, asset prices, and labor market impacts of Brexit.