Mortgage Lock-In, Mobility, and Labor Reallocation

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Fonseca, Julia; Liu, Lu
• 署名单位: University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign; University of Pennsylvania
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF FINANCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1082
• DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13398
• 发表日期: 2024
• 页码: 3729-3772
• 关键词: house prices; loss aversion; equity constraints; seller behavior; PROPOSITION 13; Rent control; Home equity; MARKET; debt; neighborhoods

摘要

We study the impact of rising mortgage rates on mobility and labor reallocation. Using individual-level credit record data and variation in the timing of mortgage origination, we show that a 1 percentage point decline in the difference between mortgage rates locked in at origination and current rates reduces moving by 9% overall and 16% between 2022 and 2024, and this relationship is asymmetric. Mortgage lock-in also dampens flows in and out of self-employment and the responsiveness to shocks to nearby employment opportunities that require moving, measured as wage growth within a 50- to 150-mile ring and instrumented with a shift-share instrument.