Superstar Returns? Spatial Heterogeneity in Returns to Housing

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Amaral, Francisco; Dohmen, Martin; Kohl, Sebastian; Schularick, Moritz
• 署名单位: University of Zurich; Swiss Finance Institute (SFI); University of Bonn; Free University of Berlin; Leibniz Association; Institut fur Weltwirtschaft an der Universitat Kiel (IFW); Institut d'Etudes Politiques Paris (Sciences Po)
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF FINANCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1082
• DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13479
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: 3057-3094
• 关键词: risk; HOME; consumption; gentrification; DYNAMICS; prices; hedge

摘要

This paper makes the first comprehensive attempt to study within-country heterogeneity of housing returns. We introduce a new city-level data set covering 15 OECD countries over 150 years and show that national housing markets are characterized by systematic spatial variation in housing returns. Total returns in large agglomerations are close to 100 basis points lower per year than in other parts of the same country. Excess returns outside the large cities can be rationalized as compensation for higher risk, especially higher covariance with income growth and lower liquidity. Real estate in diversified large agglomerations is comparatively safe.