Baby Booms and Asset Booms: Demographic Change and the Housing Market

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Francke, Marc; Korevaar, Matthijs
• 署名单位: University of Amsterdam; Erasmus University Rotterdam; Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF FINANCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1082
• DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13480
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: 3021-3056
• 关键词: stock-prices; mortality; demand; predictability; NUPTIALITY; fertility; AGE

摘要

Based on centuries of data, we demonstrate that demographics have been a major, predictable driver of house prices. High birth rates 25 to 29 (60 to 64) years ago predict declining (rising) rent-price ratios today. This pattern arises from age-concentrated entry into and exit from homeownership affecting house prices, rather than changes in housing consumption that could also impact rents. We provide evidence for possible mechanisms: slow responses of other market participants to shifts in homeownership demand, and geographic segmentation between rental and owner-occupied markets. Evidence for age-dependent demand effects on yields of bonds and stocks is significantly weaker.