Reversal of fortune - Dividend signaling and the disappearance of sustained earnings growth

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: DeAngelo, H; DeAngelo, L; Skinner, DJ
• 署名单位: University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-405X
• DOI: 10.1016/0304-405X(95)00850-E
• 发表日期: 1996
• 页码: 341-371
• 关键词: dividends; signaling; Earnings growth; DISCLOSURE POLICY

摘要

We study the signaling content of managers' dividend decisions for 145 NYSE firms whose annual earnings decline after nine or more consecutive years of growth. Using a variety of model specifications and definitions of favorable dividend signals, we find virtually no support for the notion that dividend decisions help identify firms with superior future earnings. Dividends tend not to be reliable signals because (i) a behavioral bias (overoptimism) leads managers to overestimate future earnings when growth prospects fade; and (ii) managers make only modest cash commitments when they increase dividends, undermining the reliability of such signals.