TRIGGER POINTS AND BUDGET CUTS - EXPLAINING THE EFFECTS OF FISCAL AUSTERITY
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
BERTOLA, G; DRAZEN, A
署名单位：
University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park
刊物名称：
AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
ISSN/ISSBN：
0002-8282
发表日期：
1993
页码：
11-26
关键词：
摘要：
We propose and solve an optimizing model which explains counterintuitive effects of fiscal policy in terms of expectations. If government spending follows an upward-trending stochastic process which the public believes may fall sharply when it reaches specific ''trigger'' points, then optimizing consumption behavior and simple budget-constraint arithmetic imply a nonlinear relationship between private consumption and government spending. This theoretical relation is consistent with the experience of several countries. (JEL E62, E21)