BUSINESS AS USUAL, MARKET CRASHES, AND WISDOM AFTER THE FACT

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: CAPLIN, A; LEAHY, J
• 署名单位: Harvard University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• 发表日期: 1994
• 页码: 548-565
• 关键词: fluctuations; BEHAVIOR; cascades; demand; money

摘要

We present a three-stage model of market dynamics. In the first stage, routine behavior tends to keep information of common interest trapped in private hands. In the second stage, private information reaches a threshold that triggers some agents to alter their behavior; these actions release information to the market. The final stage involves the market's response to this news as other participants react to the initial departure from routine behavior. We present an application to industry investment. We also outline applications to the international debt crisis, to hank runs, and to political upheavals.