Machine replacement and the business cycle: Lumps and bumps

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Cooper, R; Haltiwanger, J; Power, L
• 署名单位: Boston University; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; United States Department of the Treasury
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.89.4.921
• 发表日期: 1999
• 页码: 921-946
• 关键词: duration; INVESTMENT; adjustment; DYNAMICS; models

摘要

This paper explores investment fluctuations due to discrete changes in a plant's capital stock. The resulting aggregate investment dynamics are surprisingly rich, reflecting the interaction between a replacement cycle, the cross-sectional distribution of the age of the capital stock, and an aggregate shock. Using plant-level data, lumpy investment is procyclical and more likely for older capital. Further, the predicted path of aggregate investment that neglects vintage effects tracks actual aggregate investment reasonably well. However, ignoring fluctuations in the cross-sectional distribution of investment vintages can yield predictable nontrivial errors in forecasting changes in aggregate investment. (JEL E22, E32).