Simulating fundamental tax reform in the United States

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Altig, D; Auerbach, AJ; Kotlikoff, LJ; Smetters, KA; Walliser, J
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Boston University; University of Pennsylvania; International Monetary Fund
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.91.3.574
• 发表日期: 2001
• 页码: 574-595
• 关键词: intergenerational transfers; INVESTMENT

摘要

This paper uses a new, large-scale, dynamic life-cycle simulation model to compare the welfare and macroeconomic effects of transitions to five fundamental alternatives to the U.S, federal income tax, including a proportional consumption tax and a flat tax. The model incorporates intragenerational heterogeneity, and a detailed specification of alternative tax systems. Simulation results project significant long-run increases in output for same reforms. For other reforms, namely those that seek to insulate the poor and initial older generations from adverse welfare changes, long-run output gains are modest.