Recurrent hyperinflations and learning

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Marcet, A; Nicolini, JP
• 署名单位: Pompeu Fabra University; Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/000282803322655400
• 发表日期: 2003
• 页码: 1476-1498
• 关键词: SPECULATIVE HYPERINFLATIONS; excess volatility; inflation; models; predictability; Seigniorage; equilibria

摘要

We use a model of boundedly rational learning to account for the observations of recurrent hyperinflations, in the 1980's. In a standard monetary model we replace the assumption of full rational expectations by a formal definition of quasi-rational learning. The model under learning matches some crucial stylized facts observed during the recurrent hyperinflations experienced by several countries in the 1980's remarkably well. We argue that, despite being a small departure from rational expectations, quasi-rational learning does not preclude falsifiability of the model, it does not violate reasonable rationality requirements, and it can be used for policy evaluation.