Stochastic technical progress, smooth trends, and nearly distinct business cycles

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Rotemberg, JJ
• 署名单位: Harvard University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/000282803322655437
• 发表日期: 2003
• 页码: 1543-1559
• 关键词: aggregate demand; diffusion; GROWTH; output

摘要

This paper studies a model of random technical progress where technology diffuses at realistically slow rates. It fits smooth trends to the sum of GDP series generated by this model and series representing transitory, or cyclical, fluctuations. Detrended GDP is then largely unrelated to technical progress. The detrending method proposed by Rotemberg (1999) reconstructs cyclical variations somewhat more accurately than the HP filter. With sufficiently slow diffusion it is also more accurate than a method based on VARs fitted to hours and GDP growth. Consistent with the model's predictions, permanent shocks initially depress both hours and output in these VARs.