The economic costs of conflict: A case study of the Basque Country

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Abadie, A; Gardeazabal, J
• 署名单位: Harvard University; University of Basque Country
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/000282803321455188
• 发表日期: 2003
• 页码: 113-132
• 关键词: income-distribution; cross-section; stock returns; GROWTH; TERRORISM; instability; INVESTMENT; spain; RISK

摘要

This article investigates the economic effects of conflict, using the terrorist conflict in the Basque Country as a case study. We find that, after the outbreak of terrorism in the late 1960's, per capita GDP in the Basque Country declined about 10 percentage points relative to a synthetic control region without terrorism. In addition, we use the 1998-1999 truce as a natural experiment. We find that stocks of firms with a significant part of their business in the Basque Country showed a positive relative performance when truce became credible, and a negative relative performance at the end of the cease-fire.