Globalization and emerging markets: With or without crash?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Martin, Philippe; Rey, Helene
• 署名单位: Paris School of Economics; heSam Universite; Universite Pantheon-Sorbonne; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.96.5.1631
• 发表日期: 2006
• 页码: 1631-1651
• 关键词: Financial crises; demand curves; TRADE; RISK; GROWTH; stocks

摘要

We analyze the effects of financial and trade globalization on the likelihood of financial crashes in emerging markets. While trade globalization always makes crashes less likely, financial globalization may snake them more likely, especially when trade costs are high. Pessimistic expectations can be self-fulfilling and lead to a collapse in demand,for goods curd assets. Such a crash comes with a current account reversal and drops in income and investment. Lower-income countries are more prone to such demand-based financial crises. A quantitative evaluation shows our model is consistent with the main stylized facts of financial crashes in emerging markets.