What mean impacts miss: Distributional effects of welfare reform experiments

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bitler, Marianne P.; Gelbach, Jonah B.; Hoynes, Hilary W.
• 署名单位: University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; State University System of Florida; Florida State University; University of California System; University of California Davis
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.96.4.988
• 发表日期: 2006
• 页码: 988-1012
• 关键词: AFDC PROGRAM; Tax rates; income; guarantees

摘要

Labor supply theory predicts systematic heterogeneity in the impact of recent welfare reforms on earnings, transfers, and income. Yet most welfare reform research focuses on mean impacts. We investigate the importance of heterogeneity using random-assignment data from Connecticut's Jobs First waiver, which features key elements of post-1996 welfare programs. Estimated quantile treatment effects exhibit the substantial heterogeneity predicted by labor supply theory. Thus mean impacts miss a great deal. Looking separately at samples of dropouts and other women does not improve the performance of mean impacts. We conclude that welfare reform's effects are likely both more varied and more extensive than has been recognized.