Are technology improvements contractionary?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Basu, Susanto; Fernald, John G.; Kimball, Miles S.
• 署名单位: Boston College; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.96.5.1418
• 发表日期: 2006
• 页码: 1418-1448
• 关键词: monetary-policy; business-cycle; shocks; PRODUCTIVITY; restrictions; macroeconomy; returns; GROWTH; scale; OIL

摘要

Yes. We construct a measure of aggregate technology change, controlling for aggregation effects, varying utilization of capital and labor, nonconstant returns, and imperfect competition. On impact, when technology improves, input use and nonresidential investment fall sharply. Output changes little. With a lag of several years, inputs and investment return to normal and output rises strongly. The standard one-sector real-business-cycle model is not consistent with this evidence. The evidence is consistent, however, with simple sticky-price models, which predict the results we find: when technology improves, inputs and investment generally fall in the short run, and output itself may also fall.