Can News about the Future Drive the Business Cycle?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Jaimovich, Nir; Rebelo, Sergio
• 署名单位: Stanford University; Northwestern University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.99.4.1097
• 发表日期: 2009
• 页码: 1097-1118
• 关键词: investment; adjustment; GROWTH

摘要

Aggregate and sectoral comovement are central features of business cycles, so the ability to generate comovement is a natural litmus test for macroeconomic models. But it is a test that most models fail. We propose a untied model that generates aggregate and sectoral comovement in response to contemporaneous and news shocks about fundamentals. The fundamentals that we consider are aggregate and sectoral total factor productivity shocks as well as investment-specific technical change. The model has three key elements: variable capital utilization, adjustment costs to investment, and preferences that allow us to parameterize the strength of short-run wealth effects on the labor supply. (JEL E13, E20, E32)