Innovation Diffusion in Heterogeneous Populations: Contagion, Social Influence, and Social Learning

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Young, H. Peyton
• 署名单位: University of Oxford
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.99.5.1899
• 发表日期: 2009
• 页码: 1899-1924
• 关键词: TECHNOLOGICAL DIFFUSION; statistical-mechanics; technical change; MODEL; DYNAMICS; adoption; corn

摘要

New ideas, products, and practices take time to diffuse, a fact that is often attributed to some form of heterogeneity among potential adopters. This paper examines three broad classes of diffusion models-contagion, social influence, and social learning-and shows how to incorporate heterogeneity into each at a high level of generality without losing analytical tractability. Each type of model leaves a characteristic footprint on the shape of the adoption curve which provides a basis for discriminating empirically between them. The approach is illustrated using the classic study of Ryan and Gross (1943) on the diffusion of hybrid corn. (JEL D83, O33, Q16, Z13)