The Young, the Old, and the Restless: Demographics and Business Cycle Volatility
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
Jaimovich, Nir; Siu, Henry E.
署名单位：
Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of British Columbia
刊物名称：
AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
ISSN/ISSBN：
0002-8282
DOI：
10.1257/aer.99.3.804
发表日期：
2009
页码：
804-826
关键词：
摘要：
We investigate the consequences of demographic change for business cycle analysis. We find that changes in the age composition of the labor force account for a significant fraction of the variation in cyclical volatility observed in the G7 Since World War II, these countries have experienced dramatic demographic changes, although details regarding timing and nature differ across countries. We exploit this variation to show that the workforce age composition has a large and significant effect on cyclical volatility. We relate our results to the recent decline in US macroeconomic volatility, finding that demographic change accounts for approximately one-fifth to one-third of this moderation. (JEL E32, J11)