Lost in Transit: Product Replacement Bias and Pricing to Market

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Nakamura, Emi; Steinsson, Jon
• 署名单位: Columbia University; Columbia University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.102.7.3277
• 发表日期: 2012
• 页码: 3277-3316
• 关键词: rate pass-through; real exchange-rate; to-market; international prices; monetary-policy; quality growth; Import prices; UNITED-STATES; adjustment; index

摘要

In the microdata underlying US trade price indexes, 40 percent of products are replaced before a single price change is observed and 70 percent are replaced after two price changes or fewer. A price index that focuses on price changes for identical items may, therefore, miss an important component of price adjustment occurring at the time of product replacements. We provide a model of this product replacement bias and quantify its importance using US data. Accounting for product replacement bias, long-run exchange rate pass-through is substantially higher than conventional estimates suggest, and the terms of trade are substantially more volatile.