Reverse Bayesianism: A Choice-Based Theory of Growing Awareness

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Karni, Edi; Viero, Marie-Louise
• 署名单位: Johns Hopkins University; Queens University - Canada
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.103.7.2790
• 发表日期: 2013
• 页码: 2790-2810
• 关键词: Unawareness

摘要

This article introduces a new approach to modeling the expanding universe of decision makers in the wake of growing awareness, and invokes the axiomatic approach to model the evolution of decision makers' beliefs as awareness grows. The expanding universe is accompanied by extension of the set of acts, the preference relations over which are linked by a new axiom, invariant risk preferences, asserting that the ranking of lotteries is independent of the set of acts under consideration. The main results are representation theorems and rules for updating beliefs over expanding state spaces and events that have the flavor of reverse Bayesianism.