The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Autor, David H.; Dorn, David; Hanson, Gordon H.
• 署名单位: Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California San Diego
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.103.6.2121
• 发表日期: 2013
• 页码: 2121-2168
• 关键词: wage inequality; INTERNATIONAL-TRADE; GROWTH; demand; IMPACT; GLOBALIZATION; TECHNOLOGY; decline

摘要

We analyze the effect of rising Chinese import competition between 1990 and 2007 on US local labor markets, exploiting cross-market variation in import exposure stemming from initial differences in industry specialization and instrumenting for US imports using changes in Chinese imports by other high-income countries. Rising imports cause higher unemployment, lower labor force participation, and reduced wages in local labor markets that house import-competing manufacturing industries. In our main specification, import competition explains one-quarter of the contemporaneous aggregate decline in US manufacturing employment. Transfer benefits payments for unemployment, disability, retirement, and healthcare also rise sharply in more trade-exposed labor markets.