Hot and Cold Seasons in the Housing Market

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Ngai, L. Rachel; Tenreyro, Silvana
• 署名单位: University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.104.12.3991
• 发表日期: 2014
• 页码: 3991-4026
• 关键词: business cycles; search; EFFICIENCY; prices; MODEL; mobility; STOCK

摘要

Every year housing markets in the United Kingdom and the United States experience systematic above-trend increases in prices and transactions during the spring and summer (hot season) and below-trend falls during the autumn and winter (cold season). House price seasonality poses a challenge to existing housing models. We propose a search-and-matching model with thick-market effects. In thick markets, the quality of matches increases, rising buyers' willingness to pay and sellers' desire to transact. A small, deterministic driver of seasonality can be amplified and revealed as deterministic seasonality in transactions and prices, quantitatively mimicking seasonal fluctuations in UK and US markets.