Mortgage Modification and Strategic Behavior: Evidence from a Legal Settlement with Countrywide

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Mayer, Christopher; Morrison, Edward; Piskorski, Tomasz; Gupta, Arpit
• 署名单位: Columbia University; Columbia University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.104.9.2830
• 发表日期: 2014
• 页码: 2830-2857
• 关键词: Moral hazard; securitization; RENEGOTIATION; default; CONTRACTS; Bailouts; CRISIS

摘要

We investigate whether homeowners respond strategically to news of mortgage modification programs. We exploit plausibly exogenous variation in modification policy induced by settlement of US state government lawsuits against Countrywide Financial Corporation, which agreed to offer modifications to seriously delinquent borrowers. Using a difference-in-differences framework, we find that Countrywide's monthly delinquency rate increased more than 0.54 percentage points-a 10 percent relative increase-immediately after the settlement's announcement. The estimated increase in default rates is largest among borrowers least likely to default otherwise. These results suggest that strategic behavior should be an important consideration in designing mortgage modification programs.