Fiscal Stimulus in a Monetary Union: Evidence from US Regions

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Nakamura, Emi; Steinsson, Jon
• 署名单位: Columbia University; Columbia University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/AER.104.3.753
• 发表日期: 2014
• 页码: 753-792
• 关键词: nominal rigidities; GOVERNMENT; POLICY; price; consumption; multiplier; economies; STABILITY; DYNAMICS; shocks

摘要

We use rich historical data on military procurement to estimate the effects of government spending. We exploit regional variation in military buildups to estimate an open economy relative multiplier of approximately 1.5. We develop a framework for interpreting this estimate and relating it to estimates of the standard closed economy aggregate multiplier. The latter is highly sensitive to how strongly aggregate monetary and tax policy leans against the wind. Our open economy relative multiplier differences out these effects because monetary and tax policies are uniform across the nation. Our evidence indicates that demand shocks can have large effects on output.