Declining Discount Rates

• 成果类型: Article; Proceedings Paper
• 署名作者: Cropper, Maureen L.; Freeman, Mark C.; Groom, Ben; Pizer, William A.
• 署名单位: University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; Loughborough University; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Duke University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.104.5.538
• 发表日期: 2014
• 页码: 538-543
• 关键词: distant future

摘要

In this paper we ask whether the US government should replace its current discounting practices with a declining discount rate schedule, as the United Kingdom and France have done, or continue to discount the future at a constant exponential rate. To address the question, we briefly present the theoretical basis for a declining discount rate (DDR) schedule, and focus on how, in practice, a DDR could be estimated for use by policy analysts. We discuss the empirical approaches in the literature and review how the United Kingdom and France estimated their DDR schedules. We conclude with advice on how the United States might proceed to consider modifying its current discounting practices.