Aid Under Fire: Development Projects and Civil Conflict
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
Crost, Benjamin; Felter, Joseph; Johnston, Patrick
署名单位：
University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Denver; Children's Hospital Colorado; University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus; Stanford University; Stanford University; RAND Corporation
刊物名称：
AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
ISSN/ISSBN：
0002-8282
DOI：
10.1257/aer.104.6.1833
发表日期：
2014
页码：
1833-1856
关键词：
摘要：
We estimate the causal effect of a large development program on conflict in the Philippines through a regression discontinuity design that exploits an arbitrary poverty threshold used to assign eligibility for the program. We find that barely eligible municipalities experienced a large increase in conflict casualties compared to barely ineligible ones. This increase is mostly due to insurgent-initiated incidents in the early stages of program preparation. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that insurgents try to sabotage the program because its success would weaken their support in the population.