Ambiguity Aversion with Three or More Outcomes

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Machina, Mark J.
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California San Diego
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.104.12.3814
• 发表日期: 2014
• 页码: 3814-3840
• 关键词: expected utility; Uncertainty aversion; Anticipated utility; decision weights; prospect-theory; MODEL; RISK; REPRESENTATION; CHOICE; probability

摘要

Ambiguous choice problems which involve three or more outcome values can reveal aspects of ambiguity and ambiguity aversion which cannot be displayed in the classic two-outcome Ellsberg urn problems, and hence are not always captured by models designed to accommodate them. These aspects include Allais-type preferences over purely subjective acts, attitudes toward different sources involving different amounts of ambiguity, and attitudes toward ambiguity at different outcome levels. This paper presents a few such examples, and examines the standard models' predictions and performance in such cases.