One Swallow Doesn't Make a Summer: New Evidence on Anchoring Effects

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Maniadis, Zacharias; Tufano, Fabio; List, John A.
• 署名单位: University of Southampton; University of Nottingham; University of Chicago
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.104.1.277
• 发表日期: 2014
• 页码: 277-290
• 关键词: choice-theoretic foundations; Robustness; demand; false

摘要

Some researchers have argued that anchoring in economic valuations casts doubt on the assumption of consistent and stable preferences. We present new evidence that explores the strength of certain anchoring results. We then present a theoretical framework that provides insights into why we should be cautious of initial empirical findings in general. The model importantly highlights that the rate of false positives depends not only on the observed significance level, but also on statistical power, research priors, and the number of scholars exploring the question. Importantly, a few independent replications dramatically increase the chances that the original finding is true.