Violence and Risk Preference: Experimental Evidence from Afghanistan

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Callen, Michael; Isaqzadeh, Mohammad; Long, James D.; Sprenger, Charles
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; Stanford University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.104.1.123
• 发表日期: 2014
• 页码: 123-148
• 关键词: posttraumatic-stress-disorder; LOTTERY EQUIVALENTS; genetic-variation; prospect-theory; utility; disappointment; aversion; DECISION; CHOICE; comorbidity

摘要

We investigate the relationship between violence and economic risk preferences in Afghanistan combining: (i) a two-part experimental procedure identifying risk preferences, violations of Expected Utility, and specific preferences for certainty; (ii) controlled recollection of fear based on established methods from psychology; and (iii) administrative violence data from precisely geocoded military records. We document a specific preference for certainty in violation of Expected Utility. The preference for certainty, which we term a Certainty Premium, is exacerbated by the combination of violent exposure and controlled fearful recollections. The results have implications for risk taking and are potentially actionable for policymakers and marketers.