Credit Constraints and Growth in a Global Economy

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Coeurdacier, Nicolas; Guibaud, Stephane; Jin, Keyu
• 署名单位: Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20130549
• 发表日期: 2015
• 页码: 2838-2881
• 关键词: intertemporal substitution; WEALTH; elasticity; decline; imbalances; households; countries; savings; puzzle; rates

摘要

We show that in an open-economy OLG model, the interaction between growth differentials and household credit constraints-more severe in fast-growing countries-can explain three prominent global trends: a divergence in private saving rates between advanced and emerging economies, large net capital outflows from the latter, and a sustained decline in the world interest rate. Micro-level evidence on the evolution of age-saving profiles in the US and China corroborates our mechanism. Quantitatively, our model explains about a third of the divergence in aggregate saving rates, and a significant portion of the variations in age-saving profiles across countries and over time.