Correlation Neglect, Voting Behavior, and Information Aggregation

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Levy, Gilat; Razin, Ronny
• 署名单位: University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20140134
• 发表日期: 2015
• 页码: 1634-1645
• 关键词: Bias

摘要

In this paper we analyze elections when voters underestimate the correlation between their information sources (correlation neglect). We find that this cognitive bias can improve political outcomes. We show that the extreme beliefs which result from correlation neglect induce some voters to base their vote on information rather than on political preferences. We characterize conditions on the distribution of preferences under which this induces higher vote shares for the optimal policies and better information aggregation.