Averting Catastrophes: The Strange Economics of Scylla and Charybdis

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Martin, Ian W. R.; Pindyck, Robert S.
• 署名单位: University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20140806
• 发表日期: 2015
• 页码: 2947-2985
• 关键词: climate; disasters; POLICY; cost; RISK

摘要

Faced with numerous potential catastrophes-nuclear and bioterrorism, mega-viruses, climate change, and others-which should society attempt to avert? A policy to avert one catastrophe considered in isolation might be evaluated in cost-benefit terms. But because society faces multiple catastrophes, simple cost-benefit analysis fails: even if the benefit of averting each one exceeds the cost, we should not necessarily avert them all. We explore the policy interdependence of catastrophic events, and develop a rule for determining which catastrophes should be averted and which should not.